Mr Sandeep Mahajan, lead economist at the World Bank (WB) in Vietnam, said if Vietnam makes good use of TPP opportunities, its economy will incrementally benefit from the free trade agreement. By 2030, TPP will contribute at least 8 – 10 percent to the country’s GDP.
He said that Vietnam’s GDP is assumed to reach US$500 billion in 2030 if it is not TPP member but the figure will be US$550 billion or even higher with the TPP membership.
Like other export-driven countries, Vietnam will have a lot of opportunities when it joins TPP. Besides, after entering TPP, criteria of labour, competition, environment and intellectual property rights will be toughened. This will help push a comprehensive economic reform, particularly for sectors engaging in supply chains and exporting goods to TPP countries. Entry to TPP will also force State-owned enterprises (SOEs) to face restructuring to operate more effectively.
He stressed that for export-driven nations like Vietnam, TPP will open up a huge market for its exports. Vietnam’s goods will have a huge advantage to penetrate into big and potential markets like the United States, Japan, Australia, Canada and other TPP member countries.
“In spite of certain restrictions, TPP will positively impact the Vietnamese economy. Given available information, I think that TPP will contribute at least 8-10 percent to Vietnam’s GDP by 2030,” said Mr Sandeep Mahajan.
Vietnam’s economy has maintained its relatively high growth rate. The World Bank recently raised Vietnam’s GDP growth prospect to 6.2 percent this year, 0.2 percent higher than the previous forecast, while inflation is kept at 1.5 percent. WB also upgraded Vietnam’s GDP growth to 6.3 percent in 2016 and 2017 and inflation was forecast at 3 percent and 3.2 percent, respectively.
However, WB said that such forecasts may vary due to internal and external risks. External risks include slow global economic growth, volatility in financial markets and commodity markets. They factors may have strong effects on Vietnam’s economy owing to its reliance on trade.
